DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/techned2020.05.070

THE COST OF ERROR OF "DAY AHEAD" FORECAST OF TECHNOLOGICAL LOSSES OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY

Authors
I. Blinov*, V. Miroshnyk**, P. Shymaniuk
Institute of Electrodynamics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine,
Peremohy Ave., 56, Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine,
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* ORCID ID : https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8010-5301
** ORCID ID : https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9036-7268

Abstract

The analysis of the features of the functioning of the distribution system operators and the transmission system operator in the context of mechanisms of responsibility for unbalances of electric energy consumption and the performance of special duties on the electricity market of Ukraine is carried out. A methodology has been developed for calculation the price of error of a short-term forecast of the volume of electric energy technological losses. The distribution of the forecast error by hours of the day is analyzed. The weighted average price of the forecast error based on data for the fourth quarter of 2019 is calculated. The average annual total cost of covering unbalances was estimated at 5% of the total volume of technological losses in electric networks. References 4, figure 1.

Key words: electricity market, short-term forecasting, technological losses of electrical energy.

Received: 28.02.2020
Accepted: 19.05.2020
Published: 25.08.2020

References
1. On Electricyty Market: The Law of Ukraine No 2019-VIII from 13.04.2017. URL: http://zakon3.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2019-19. (Ukr) (accessed at 21.07.2017)
2. Tankevych S., Blinov I. The harmonized role model of electricity market in Ukraine. 2nd IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Energy and Power Systems (IEPS-2016). Kyiv, Ukraine, 7-11 June, 2016. Pp. 107-109.
3. Kuchanskyy V.V. The prevention measure of resonance overvoltages in extra high voltage transmission lines. IEEE First Ukraine Conference on Electrical and Computer Engineering (UKRCON-2017). Kyiv, Ukraine, May 29 – June 2, 2017. Pp. 436-441. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/UKRCON.2017.8100529
4. Hong T. Crystal Ball. Lessons in Predictive Analytics. EnergyBiz. 2015. Vol. 12. No 2. Pp. 35-37.

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