PDF Печать E-mail

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/techned2019.06.074

APPLICATION OF MACROMODELING METHOD AS BASES FOR FORECASTING ELECTRICAL CONSUMPTION OF MULTIFLAT HOUSES

Journal Tekhnichna elektrodynamika
Publisher Institute of Electrodynamics National Academy of Science of Ukraine
ISSN 1607-7970 (print), 2218-1903 (online)
Issue No 6, 2019 (November/December)
Pages 74 - 80

Authors
P.D. Lezhniuk1*, A.S. Bondarchuk2**, O.P. Hoholiuk3***
1- Vinnitsa National Technical University,
Khmelnytske shosse, 95, Vinnytsia, 21021, Ukraine,
e-mail: Этот e-mail адрес защищен от спам-ботов, для его просмотра у Вас должен быть включен Javascript
2- Odessa National Polytechnic University,
pr. Shevchenka, 1, Odesa, 65044, Ukraine,
e-mail: Этот e-mail адрес защищен от спам-ботов, для его просмотра у Вас должен быть включен Javascript
3- National University Lviv Polytechnic,
str. S. Bandera, 12, Lviv, 79013, Ukraine,
e-mail: Этот e-mail адрес защищен от спам-ботов, для его просмотра у Вас должен быть включен Javascript
* ORCID ID : http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9366-3553
** ORCID ID : http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-5403
*** ORCID ID : http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2146-4667

Abstract

The application of the method of macromodelling is proposed for single-factor modeling and analysis of daily schedules of household electricity consumers, which creates the basis for their prediction at various time intervals. The advantage of the method is that it allows, with an accuracy sufficient for practical application, to create deterministic models of power consumption based on the initial information without the need for its preliminary processing. References 10, figures 5.

Key words: macromodeling, discrete macromodel, deterministic model, electric power consumption, forecasting, multi-flat house.

Received: 02.03.2018
Accepted: 18.07.2019
Published: 25.10.2019

 

References
1. Chernenko P.O., Martyniuk O.V., Zaslavsky A.I., Miroshnyk V.O. Multifactor modeling and analysis of electrical load of the power system using the data of long-term prehistory. Tekhnichna Elektrodynamika. 2018. No 1. Pp. 87-93. (Ukr) DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15407/techned2018.01.087
2. Bunn D.W., Farmer E.D. Comparative models for electrical load forecasting. London: John Wiley & Sons, 1985. 197 p. URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0169-2070(86)90116-0 (11.01.2018)
3. Gogolyuk O.P., Kozak Yu.Ya., Rosolovsky E., Stakhiv P.G. Increasing the effectiveness of algorithmic support for the construction of discrete macromodels and their adaptation to the programs of calculation of electric circuits. Tekhnichna Elektrodynamika. 2019. No 2. Pp. 3-6. (Ukr) DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/techned2019.02.003
4. Salinelli E., Tomarelli F. Discrete Dynamical Models. Springer International Publishing, Switzerland, 2014. 394 p. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-88-470-5504-9
5. John E. Hanke, Dean W. Wichern. Business Forecasting. Prentice Hall. 2009. 551 p. URL: https://books.google.com.ua/books/about/Business_Forecasting.html?id=kY2lPwAACAAJ&redir_esc=y (12.01.2018)
6. Bondarchuk A.S.. In-house electrical power supply. Kyiv: Osvita Ukrainy, 2015. 480 p. (Ukr) URL: http://library.lp.edu.ua/opac/page_lib.php?docid=447735&mode=DocBibRecord (12.01.2018)
7. Lezhniuk P.D., Shulle Yu.A. Operational forecasting of electrical loads of power consumption systems using their fractal properties. Vinnytsia: Vinnytskyi Natsionalnyi tekhnichnyi universytet, 2015. 104 p. (Ukr) URL: http://ir.lib.vntu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/12337 (11.01.2018)
8. Kotsar O.V., Rasko Yu.O., Galabitsky P.M. Increasing the reliability of forecasting the load of end users in the RSDBR. Power Engineering. 2015. No 2. Pp. 43-52. (Ukr) URL: http://ela.kpi.ua/handle/ 123456789/15176 (12.01.2018)
9. Butenko S., Pardalos P.M., Shylo V. Optimization methods and Application. New York: Springer, 2018. 639 p. URL: https://translate.google.com.ua/translate?hl=ru&sl=en&u=https (11.01.2018)
10. Kotsar O.V. Application of ASCAE for controlling the modes of electricity consumption in the conditions of operation of the market of bilateral agreements and the balancing market. Kyiv: Instytut Elektrodynamiky Natsionalnoi Akademii Nauk Ukrainy. 2010. Pp. 97–102. (Ukr) DOI: https://doi.org/10.20535/1813-5420.0.2014.151996

PDF